2019 Roster Projection Contest Results

-DNOMN8R314

It took an extended deadline, three offensive line trades, and a flip-flop of Gunner Olszewski’s roster standing, but we finally did it.

For the first time since I started this contest, NEPFF commenters have outpredicted Patriots writers in guessing the initial 53-man roster.

Our 13 entries averaged 49.46 correct guesses, besting the 15 writers’ 47.80 right selections.

Feels good.

(ah…)

Now that we’ve soaked that in, a quick reminder of the roster as of Saturday cuts:

QB (2) T.Brady, J.Stidham
RB (6) S.Michel, J.White, R.Burkhead, D.Harris, B.Bolden, J.Develin
WR (7) J.Edelman, J.Gordon, N.Harry, P.Dorsett, J.Meyers, G.Olszewski, M.Slater
TE (2) M.LaCosse, R.Izzo
C (2) T.Karras, R.Bodine
G (2) S.Mason, J.Thuney
T (4) M.Cannon, I.Wynn, K.Cunningham, J.Eluemenor
DE (5) M.Bennett, J.Simon, D.Wise, C.Winovich, S.Calhoun
DT (4) L.Guy, A.Butler, D.Shelton, B.Cowart
ILB (2) J.Bentley, E.Roberts
OLB (3) D.Hightower, K.VanNoy, J.Collins
CB (5) S.Gilmore, J.McCourty, J.Jackson, J.Williams, J.Jones
SS (3) P.Chung, O.Melifonwu, N.Ebner
FS (3) D.McCourty, D.Harmon, T.Brooks
ST (3) S.Gostkowski, J.Bailey, J.Cardona
Total players: 53

Before naming the winner, here were some player trends:

  • Once again, nobody predicted on every roster wound up cut. Demaryius Thomas, named on 27 of the 28 rosters, was the biggest surprise cut.
    • Other players on at least half the projections who did not make the initial squad: Keion Crossen (21), Brian Hoyer (17), Calvin Munson (15), and Hjalte Froholdt (14).
  • Last year, Ryan Izzo became the only player (not counting trade acquisitions) named on zero projections to survive final cuts. This year, we nearly had a second, as Obi Melifonwu was named on one prediction and is still around.
    • The only other players on less than half to make it: Shilique Calhoun (5), Olszewski (11), and Russell Bodine (11, thanks to a very late trade).

And now, the best and worst:

  • Of the beat writers, the top of the class was NESN’s Doug Kyed, with 50 correct guesses out of 53, including Hoyer, Thomas, and Crossen in place of Melifonwu, Bodine, and Deatrich Wise Jr.
  • The worst will be a surprise, as Mike Reiss – the first person since I started counting these to score 51 correct, in 2014 – was the low scorer at 46.
  • Among the crowd here, rking88, the first commenter to submit an entry, scored lowest with 47. However, he was the only entry to correctly leave off Thomas, so that’s worth some points that don’t actually change the score or mean anything.
  • And you’ll notice I said that Reiss’ 2014 was the first to score 51, and not “the only.” That’s because two NEPFF commenters matched that mark with only two incorrect guesses: DNOMN8R314 (yay me) and memokerobi (yay memo), who will share the crown until next year. I swapped in Thomas and Crossen for Melifonwu and Wise, while memo had Thomas and Froholdt instead of Melifonwu and Calhoun.

(Results here; projection numbers here.)

We win.

We’re on to the regular season.

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NewEnglandBlight
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NewEnglandBlight

I don’t understand the simulated outrage over the Pats playing Sunday night. The opening schedule is just reverting back to the way things were pre-2006.

It’s not a big deal.

itsBradyBaby
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itsBradyBaby

UMM WE GOT USED TO IT AND IT SHOULD HAD BEEN OUR NIGHT

NewEnglandBlight
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NewEnglandBlight

That’s called fake entitlement.. dont do that.

itsBradyBaby
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itsBradyBaby

Your name is Blight and I’m Nate.

BoSoxJim
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BoSoxJim

No start to the NFL season is complete without posting Rob Parker’s proclamation from 2012…

https://twitter.com/OldTakesExposed/status/1169621288316559360

itsBradyBaby
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itsBradyBaby

F THE NFL, THIS SHOULD HAD BEEN OUR GAME DAY SO IT’S GAMEDAY DAMMIT.
CAP LOCKS LIVE, PATS FOREVER.
LET’S FREAKING GOOOO.

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

How can the Colts have $42MM of cap space? Aren’t they required to spend more than that by the start of the season?

BoSoxJim
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BoSoxJim

You have to spend an average of 89% of the salary cap over a 4 year span

Kerthwap
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Kerthwap

Damnit!

Kerthwap
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Kerthwap

Also, the Colts being the Colts, they’re probably saving up the whole thing to overpay some big name average QB some historically dumb amount.

BoSoxJim
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BoSoxJim

I don’t know. Their new GM seems to know what he’s doing (unfortunately).

Kerthwap
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Kerthwap

Irsay will override him. Always bet on the loser to do loser things.

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

so if they are currently able to carry that much extra cap space, it must mean they likely spent all the way up to the cap the last few years? That would make sense.

BoSoxJim
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BoSoxJim

Yeah. The 1st 4 year window was 2013-16. So now the Colts have to make sure that from 2017-2020 they spend at least 89% of the sum of those 4 salary caps. They count cash spending, not the cap hits.

Here is a really good article that explains it in detail….

https://www.cincyjungle.com/2013/2/13/3980246/minimum-cash-spend-requirement-under-the-cba

BoSoxJim
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BoSoxJim

I don’t know how much the Colts spent in 2017. If it was lower than 89%, then they will have some work to do in 2019 and 2020 to meet the requirement.

Kerthwap
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Kerthwap

There’s a four year spending average.

PanicTime
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PanicTime

Can we get this Panic Party started?

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

Our TEs suck!

Deadsmack #GreenShirtGuy
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Deadsmack #GreenShirtGuy

It is what it is

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

hey now, pipe down, we are trying to panic here!

Kerthwap
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Kerthwap

Let’s get it started, ha, let’s get started in here.

MasterAndCommander
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MasterAndCommander

Injured TEs? We’re DOOOOOOMED!!!

Deadsmack #GreenShirtGuy
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Deadsmack #GreenShirtGuy

WAKE UP!!!!!!!!!

REAL FOOTBALL IS BACK!!!!

PS: MAC must be sleeping. 🙂

MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats
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MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats

Wake up MAC!!!!!!!

MasterAndCommander
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MasterAndCommander

OK!!!!!. I’m awake!!

Zoocore #WeMissYouBoney
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Zoocore #WeMissYouBoney

I drafted Brady in all 3 of my leagues. Eff what ya heard.

PanicTime
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PanicTime

How can a player be in 3 different leagues? He’s got to be superman.

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

skipping OTAs afforded him the extra time

rking88
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rking88

Auction draft completed: 2.5 hours… shoot me
Snake draft: fucked up and rescheduled for tomorrow at 10pm… shoot me again

memokerobi
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memokerobi

We’d be playing tomorrow if it wasn’t for the NFL 100 crap 🙂

NewEnglandBlight
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NewEnglandBlight

Edelman looks like hammered dog sh*t in the new America’s Game.

rking88
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rking88

i’ve got a double draft scenario tonight lads… auction starting at 830 and snake starting at 9… wish me luck!

MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats
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MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats

Only draft Patriots. Trust me!

MasterAndCommander
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MasterAndCommander

Do your job.

Zoocore #WeMissYouBoney
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Zoocore #WeMissYouBoney

DRAFT THEM ALLL!!!!!!!

bring
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bring

“Do Your Job” already slobbering all over McD

SamiG
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SamiG

Yummy

MasterAndCommander
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MasterAndCommander

Ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm….

SamiG
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SamiG

Aloha

MasterAndCommander
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MasterAndCommander

Hi. How’s it going?

BoSoxJim
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BoSoxJim

Considering that BB admitted that Josh is responsible for over 95% of the offensive gameplan and that he defers to McDaniels on calls, it should be slobbering all over him.

bring
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bring

I’ve said here a few times over the last couple of days that it’s a “get Josh a HC gig” production directed by BB

If you for some reason thought I felt Josh didn’t deserve it

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

how can that be, when everyone apparently knows that McD already has a contract with Kraft to be the next HC of the Pats?

MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats
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MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats

Twas the night before NFL season, when all through the blog,
Not a creature was typing, not even DNOM…

SamiG
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SamiG

sup

MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats
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MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats

What’s up Sam Dawg? How are things in sunny Florida?

SamiG
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SamiG

Holed up studying all day lol. But otherwise good.

MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats
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MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats

I’d imagine it’s not easy. But you got this Sami!

SamiG
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SamiG

Merci. Made some yummy kale for dinner just now

MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats
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MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats

Mmmm, Kale!

MasterAndCommander
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MasterAndCommander

FYI. “Yummy kale”. Is an oxymoron…… 🙂

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

what if you cook it down in rum?

bring
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bring

Curran saying this is Brady’s last season in NE

NewEnglandBlight
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NewEnglandBlight

How does he not write for The Onion?

MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats
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MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats

Think the hair plugs have affected his synapses.

NewEnglandBlight
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NewEnglandBlight

probably replaced them.

Zoocore #WeMissYouBoney
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Zoocore #WeMissYouBoney

I’ve learned that I really can’t stand him. He’s been such a troll since last season.

NorthShore
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NorthShore

If it’s Brady’s last season in NE, it is also his last season in the NFL, playing football. They go hand in hand, imo.

oscarthebald
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oscarthebald

I dunno. Maybe he’ll go back home to San Fran and back up Jimmy Small Hands….

NewEnglandBlight
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NewEnglandBlight

hahhh.. Jerry Jones said Zeke was an “incremental part” to the team’s success.

I can’t wait til I’m so old I lose my command of vocabulary.

Deadsmack #GreenShirtGuy
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Deadsmack #GreenShirtGuy

comment image

Deadsmack #GreenShirtGuy
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Deadsmack #GreenShirtGuy

Bill Belichick: “We’re gonna do what’s best for the team, just like we always do”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f55pXTLInuc

Deadsmack #GreenShirtGuy
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Deadsmack #GreenShirtGuy

Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter
After the summer drama, Raiders’ WR Antonio Brown has opted to play this season in a Xenith Shadow helmet. Brown believes the Xenith Shadow makes him feel more agile and comfortable, and allows for better visibility.

RIP, Schutt AiR Advantage.

Deadsmack #GreenShirtGuy
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Deadsmack #GreenShirtGuy
Deadsmack #GreenShirtGuy
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Deadsmack #GreenShirtGuy

Anderson Varejão put Giannis Antetokounmpo in his pocket

JLStokes
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JLStokes

Glad Pats were able to keep D. Wise Jr. Dude makes plays.

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

so was Calhoun not put on IR, and he was one of the “healthy 53” at practice today?

dp73
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dp73

Yes.

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

excellent. he looked decent in preseason. might end up being a good value signing.

dp73
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dp73

Never thought he would be cut or traded.

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

I had Wise on the bubble until there were some injuries at the position. he needs to step up this season and fulfill his potential.

dp73
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dp73
HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

I’m waiting for Jim to reply so we will all at least know what is false

dp73
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dp73

What do you think?

Williams said he would never play for the Redskins again.

Kerthwap
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Kerthwap

People bluff in negotiations. I’ve no clue what will happen.

JLStokes
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JLStokes

I’d bet N’Keal Harry travels with the team for every game like Bentley did last year.

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

lets hope. he needs it.

redemptionCR
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redemptionCR

Gotta take the misses to work. Nice to see some familiar avatars. Rock on with your bad selves and Go Pats

Jdog Lemon Head
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Jdog Lemon Head

Good man. Definitely don’t take the misses for granite.

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

yeah, without her, he’d be a shale of his former self.

Kerthwap
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Kerthwap

Rock puns? Gneiss.

Jdog Lemon Head
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Jdog Lemon Head

Yeah. He might need to get stoned so he can be relaxed

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

I’m sure getting stoned was already on his morning slate of things to do

Jdog Lemon Head
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Jdog Lemon Head

You’re chalk full of puns

MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats
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MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats

Hey guys, stop with the puns. I heard Amen-dolamite come back to the Pats!

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

@patspulpit
The Ezekiel Elliott contract extension once again highlights the #Patriots’ approach to the running back position. https://www.patspulpit.com/2019/9/4/20848893/ezekiel-elliott-contract-extension-cowboys-patriots-approach-running-back-position-white-michel?utm_campaign=patspulpit&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

Good article. If I’m BB, to make the best use of Brady in his twighlight years, I think I’d be drafting a RB (not necessarily in round 1 or 2) every single year. When Michel is due for an extension… see ya. Give that cap space to pass catchers and OL and D.

redemptionCR
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redemptionCR

Have to agree. RB’s in general seem to be the easiest position to replace. Although I will pour out a 40 if James White leaves

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

yeah he’s been special. but even if extended again, he won’t be asking to break the bank like Zeke, Gurley, etc.

Kerthwap
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Kerthwap

Tomlin pre-game: Maybe I’ll blitz a whole lot, and things will magically go differently this time?

Tomlin post game: Some jerk hacked our headsets and called a bunch of blitzes!

redemptionCR
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redemptionCR

Then again, if I was coaching a game and I had Zolak come up on my headset, that would throw me for a loop as well. But ease back on the blame game Tomlin

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

especially if Zolak was on one of his exuberant rants

Kerthwap
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Kerthwap

Unicorns! Show Ponies! Where’s the Beef?!

#SB54@Miami
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#SB54@Miami

I love BB with a pencil locked on his ear. Old bakery shop flavor.

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

Ye Olde Balle Coache

Jdog Lemon Head
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Jdog Lemon Head

What lead you believe this?

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

he’s a naturally sharp guy

dfwpatsfan
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dfwpatsfan

Well, it’s a pretty graphite image of Belichick.

MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats
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MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats

He looks like he just got done taking a #2.

Jdog Lemon Head
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Jdog Lemon Head

Re: Tomlin saying he enjoys road games against the Pats. He must be pretty masochistic. I don’t believe him though. He complains all the time about “funny” business always going on at Gillette (i.e. headsets).

SamiG
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SamiG

Always a whiny little bitch.

BoSoxJim
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BoSoxJim

That’s not a nice thing to say to Jdog.

redemptionCR
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redemptionCR

rather accurate though (Tomlin wise of course)

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

oh snap!

Jdog Lemon Head
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Jdog Lemon Head

NBC Sports Boston ✔ @NBCSBoston
️ “Cooks like to be in the kitchen.”
Mike Tomlin insists the Steelers actually enjoy road games against the Patriots:https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/patriots/mike-tomlin-explains-why-steelers-enjoy-road-games-vs-patriots
—–
They get toasted more often than not though.

redemptionCR
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redemptionCR

yeah, I’m calling BS on that one

rondo723
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rondo723

What, no oblique reference to recording equipment in the visitor’s locker room? C’mon Mike, you’re losing it.

Calipatsfan3473
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Calipatsfan3473

Did he get a new chain and lock for the visitors locker room?

PatriotPrideBoy
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PatriotPrideBoy

Phil Perry ✔
@PhilAPerry
Kyle Van Noy tells @ZoandBertrand that he thinks Michael Bennett has a chance to have “a career year” for the Patriots this year. Disruptive from multiple spots.

From what we’ve seen, he’ll be a good option as the lone down lineman in NE’s “amoeba” looks in passing situations.

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

can’t wait for the 1-6 Front. honestly. could frustrate even the most veteran QBs.

SamiG
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SamiG

Yeah secondary talent + LB depth can lead to a lot of flexibility and creatively.

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

plus a bunch of “tweeners” at DT… undersized but quick, can 2-gap, and can play both run and pass.

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

shocking in this day and age that “tweeners” was autocorrected to “tweeters”

redemptionCR
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redemptionCR

Getting closer to Sunday. I’m pumped. Should be a great season of football

NewEnglandBlight
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NewEnglandBlight

wait.. Does Bill think Shazier is playing?

dfwpatsfan
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dfwpatsfan

?

PatriotPrideBoy
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PatriotPrideBoy

A reporter asked him about the Steelers’ linebackers and Bill responded with Shazier’s name

dfwpatsfan
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dfwpatsfan

Ah okay. Shazier in on the Steelers roster on the NFI list, and will be on the sideline during the game as an unofficial coach apparently, so he probably mentioned him in that context.

redemptionCR
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redemptionCR

Yeah, I find it hard to believe that Bill would pull a Jeff Fisher

PatriotPrideBoy
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PatriotPrideBoy

Reporters typically Fish for replies

redemptionCR
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redemptionCR

If this is the start of a pun thread, I’m not taking the bait

Jdog Lemon Head
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Jdog Lemon Head

Good catch, RCR. Didn’t even think about that.

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

you guys are obviously old chums

MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats
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MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats

You’re not going to lure me into this one.

SamiG
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SamiG

Another pun thread eh? Nope, I am just gonna have to tuna you out.

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

at this point, you guys are just trolling us

Jdog Lemon Head
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Jdog Lemon Head

BB did go onto say that Hines ward was going to be a tough cover but Jermome Bettis should be their #1 priority.

SamiG
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SamiG

And, of course, always need to watch for Kordell Stewart getting out of the pocket.

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

Chung might have a tough time with Heath Miller

PatriotPrideBoy
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PatriotPrideBoy

Phil Perry ✔
@PhilAPerry
Bill Belichick says JC Jackson has the ability to play inside as well as out. He was primarily an outside guy last year. Saw a lot of time on JuJu Smith-Schuster in December.

NewEnglandBlight
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NewEnglandBlight

Bill with the flip flops..

redemptionCR
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redemptionCR

I have worn flip flops so much over the years, my foot went from a regular size 12 to now when I have to wear size 13 4E (extra wide). Which makes finding shoes that fit me very difficult, especially down here

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

yeah, I’ve ruined my feet with flip flops too

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

quote of the day:

Belichick: “Yeah, I like football.”

dfwpatsfan
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dfwpatsfan

Antonio Brown’s agent is definitely earning his keep.

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

either that or the opposite

dfwpatsfan
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dfwpatsfan

Well he can’t obviously control AB, wonder if anyone could. All he can do is damage control at this point.

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

yeah, it is very difficult to manage people who are clinically insane

dfwpatsfan
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dfwpatsfan

Clinically insane people would take affront to that comparison, Hunter. At least what they’re suffering from is medically valid.

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

very true. my bad. you’re right, that comparison is an insult to clinically insane people.

NewEnglandBlight
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NewEnglandBlight

someone please suspend Antonio Brown’s twitter account.

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

such a clueless moron. I’ve never wished injury on anyone before, but I am tempted here.

NewEnglandBlight
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NewEnglandBlight

why post the letter.. It’s just dumb.

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

la la land

rondo723
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rondo723

but…the entertainment value…

NewEnglandBlight
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NewEnglandBlight

it’s not entertaining.. it makes me cringe.

All he had to do was show up for practice. He just had to be present. Dude couldn’t even show up.

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

I think part of what rondo means is “I’m glad they have their problems too”

PatriotPrideBoy
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PatriotPrideBoy

the one time when he had tetris block hair was funny

MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats
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MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats

What happened?

PatriotPrideBoy
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PatriotPrideBoy

Antonio Brown to Dallas by mid-season

PatriotPrideBoy
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PatriotPrideBoy

boats are actually so friggin cool. when you think about it, they’re contraptions that use a water’s surface to resist gravity. doesn’t get cooler than that

Kerthwap
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Kerthwap

Technically, they’re still subject to gravity.

rondo723
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rondo723

what about ice skates, ice is cooler

Kerthwap
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Kerthwap

Yo, VIP, let’s kick it.

Jdog Lemon Head
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Jdog Lemon Head

Word to yo motha

JLStokes
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JLStokes

I said it before, but I really think DT is going to be good for the Patriots. Folks are going to be surprised. I like the starting trio of Edelman/Gordon/Thomas…for however long it lasts (knocks on wood) lol

Kerthwap
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Kerthwap

I like the receiver group a whole lot more since Gordon and Thomas came back. Edelman would have been triple teamed without them.

Kerthwap
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Kerthwap

LOL at Jerry Jones. He’s expecting Super Bowls because he overpaid, a fumble prone high usage running back 50 million guaranteed over 8 years. It’s as if Jerry believes Elliot will perform better if he’s paid more, because money equals result in his mind. If he keeps getting 100 more carries than other RBs he’s going to break all the sooner. About the same yards per carry as Michel, who was guaranteed just over 3 million for four years. At which time he’ll also likely be broken, and they can move onto another RB. It’s a cold way to look… Read more »

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

they’d better win a SB in the next two years because they won’t be able to pay anyone else after that

Calipatsfan3473
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Calipatsfan3473

They still need to pay Dak and Cooper.

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

I’m sure they can kick those cans down the road too, but it will eventually catch up to them

bring
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bring

Caserio flirting with Houston, combined with the leaks that “Do your job” tonight is an unabashed McDaniels advertisement, makes me feel good that the rumors about BB not going anywhere anytime soon, are true.

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

BSJim assures us that McDaniels is staying in NE to become the next Head Coach, so I suppose it’s a done deal that he is leaving (again) after this season.

PatriotPrideBoy
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PatriotPrideBoy

flash G

bring
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bring

Do Your Job, on NFLN tonight at 8:00, followed by America’s Game at 9:00

bring
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bring

Heard the Pats are using the Thurs night snub as motivation, which is the first I heard of that. For some reason, I thought they were involved with the decision, so I never considered the snub angle. Very interesting….

NewEnglandBlight
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NewEnglandBlight

I would be grateful… Thursday Night Crapball is something to be avoided.

bring
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bring

SB champs, game 1 is sort of a tradition, wouldn’t you say?

NewEnglandBlight
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NewEnglandBlight

I mean.. it’s been a *tradition* for, what, maybe ten years?

Thursday night NFL games were not a thing for a long time.

bring
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bring

Understood, but the first game being Thursday means you can plan for it, and then get an extra 3 days off before your next one.

dp73
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dp73

It sounds about right.Where did you heard it?

JLStokes
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JLStokes

I’d be surprised if Bill wasn’t happy that they aren’t playing on Thursday. A Sunday night game means more prep.

hugo #FreeBoney
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hugo #FreeBoney

but it means less prep for week 2, and they have all summer to prep for week 1

JLStokes
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JLStokes

True. I just think Bill’s okay without all the pomp and circumstance that comes with being the “1st game” of the season.

Zoocore #WeMissYouBoney
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Zoocore #WeMissYouBoney

I drafted New England’s DST in all three of my leagues.

Sorry if I BoSoxJinx us, guys.

Jonc77
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Jonc77

the only thing that can screw the pats D is if they go back to the bend but don’t break D. I think that left with Matt P though.

MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats
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MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats

You are my hero.