Mock Draft Contest Strategies (With 2019 Rule Changes)

-by DNOMN8R314

With almost a week to go until Roger Goodell takes the stage in Nashville and gets mercilessly booed, it’s time for potential entrants to this year’s NEPFF Pats-Only Mock Draft Contest to hammer down their boards and send in their lists.

As I mentioned in the contest article proper, I have made some rule changes this year. However, since writing them, I have added a couple more rules in the interest of fairness to all of you. I will still recap the rules below; you may read them in full in the main article. (The loophole closure still applies, MAC.)

Rules Recap

  • Send me the names of the 12 players you think it most likely that Bill Belichick will pick.
  • Send the list in order of likelihood you think the Patriots will draft them.
  • Also include which round you think each player will be drafted in. (You may include UDFAs among your dozen if you wish.)
  • Send your list to contests@patsfootballfans.com and include the list in the body of the email.
  • The deadline is the start of the first round of the 2019 draft: Thursday, April 25 at 8 PM Eastern time.

Scoring Recap

  • If the 1st player on your list (your most likely pick) is drafted by the Patriots, you receive 15 points.
  • 2nd: 12
  • 3rd: 10
  • 4th: 9
  • 5th: 8
  • 6th: 7
  • 7th: 6
  • 8th: 5
  • 9th: 4
  • 10th: 3
  • 11th: 2
  • 12th: 1

If you get the round for any Pats pick correctly, you get 3 extra points.

If a projected draft pick becomes a Pats UDFA or a projected UDFA becomes a draft pick, you only get half of the points for that slot, rounded up.

If you guess multiple picks correctly, you’ll receive extra points:

  • Two correct: 1 point
  • Three correct: 3 points
  • Four correct: 6 points
  • Five correct: 10 points
  • Six or more correct: 15 points

Bonus Points! Recap

Additionally, please send in:

  • A list of three first-rounders you think the Patriots will draft. Each is worth 5 points if the Patriots do take them in the first, or 2 points if New England takes them later.
    • UPDATE: If the Patriots do not use their first-round pick, their first selection will receive the five-point bonus. For instance, Patrick Chung in 2009 would have gotten a submission five points.
  • A list of three quarterbacks you think the Patriots will draft (or sign as a UDFA). Each is worth 3 points.
    • UPDATE: If you think the Patriots will not draft a quarterback, you may submit “no quarterbacks” as this list. If you are correct, you will receive 4 points. (Note that this does NOT apply to UDFAs; if you predict no quarterbacks, and the Patriots do not draft one but sign a UDFA QB, you will still get the points.)

One more important point: while you may put a player on more than one list, the players within each list must be different. Thus, you can (for example) have a player on your first-round list of three and in your list of twelve, but you cannot have him twice in the list of twelve.

Potential Strategies

As far as I can tell, there are two main strategies to selecting your group of 11 players:

  • Scatter your picks widely throughout rounds and positions. This gives more chances of hitting players in rounds in which the Patriots currently do not have a selection, but could result in a wider chance of misses if the team focuses on only a few rounds or positions.
  • Focus heavily on a few rounds or positions – even on just one. This gives a higher chance of hitting a player at that particular round or position, but ensures not hitting at others.

There’s also two different strategies for the two bonus points possibilities:

  • Put the same players in your list of 11 in your bonus lists. This could result in a big points boom on a correct selection, but results in fewer chances of a hit.
  • Put different players from your list of 11 in your bonus lists. While this results in more chances of getting a pick right, it also removes the chance of getting huge points with one player.

Go wild.

Related Posts

241
Leave a Reply

avatar
114 Comment threads
127 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
26 Comment authors
dyimsJonc77rking88MattDog #AndyIsabellaToThePatsitsBradyBaby Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
PatriotPrideBoy
Member
Free agent
PatriotPrideBoy

get the brooms hugo

MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats
Member
Free agent
MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats

Sweep?

rking88
Member
Free agent
rking88

another triple for boston sports- Celtics, Bruins, and Red Sox all with the victories… i’d call that a successful day

MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats
Member
Free agent
MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats

The Revs won last night….QUADRUPLE!!

Kerthwap
Member
Free agent
Kerthwap

Sox take the lead in the 11th.

Kerthwap
Member
Free agent
Kerthwap

Bruins need to practice their full ice shots!

rking88
Member
Free agent
rking88

game 7 in boston baby… lets goooo!

bring
Member
Free agent
bring

That was bananas

MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats
Member
Free agent
MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats

DINGOAL!!!

Kerthwap
Member
Free agent
Kerthwap

Dagger!

MrLucky
Member
Free agent
MrLucky

LETS GOOOOOOOO

rking88
Member
Free agent
rking88

is it just me or are the B’s a little too pass happy again and not just taking shots when they get the chance?

MrLucky
Member
Free agent
MrLucky

ugh please don’t lose this Bruins

MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats
Member
Free agent
MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats

Lets Go Broooons!

NewEnglandBlight
Member
Free agent
NewEnglandBlight

GOOALLLLL BRUINS 2-1!

bring
Member
Free agent
bring

So the Leafs player trips the Bs player, and the Bs player gets the penalty – got it

NewEnglandBlight
Member
Free agent
NewEnglandBlight

GOOALLLLLLL 1-1!

NewEnglandBlight
Member
Free agent
NewEnglandBlight

come on bruins.. make something happen

Kerthwap
Member
Free agent
Kerthwap

Kyrie looked really concerned about trying to blame Brown for that terrible pass.

bring
Member
Free agent
bring

Trying to get him to work the angles – Brown did nothing to get himself open there

rondo723
Member
Free agent
rondo723

teachable moment for a young player

Kerthwap
Member
Free agent
Kerthwap

Wow, it’s like the officials wanted to give the Pacers a chance to mug Tatum and get another possession, ignoring the obvious attempts to foul.

rondo723
Member
Free agent
rondo723

Hubie Brown has dropped all pretenses and is outright rooting for the Pacers now

Kerthwap
Member
Free agent
Kerthwap

Just started giving them a “nice eulogy” with two minutes left. Didn’t actually show much faith in their ability to come back.

Kerthwap
Member
Free agent
Kerthwap

Foul on Morriss for coming within an inch of Evans, nice.

rondo723
Member
Free agent
rondo723

Hayward-Horford PnR absolutely lethal. Well really Horford-anybody PnR just crushes. Hayward’s feeling it though.

Kerthwap
Member
Free agent
Kerthwap

Dare I say… Morris shooting well tonight?!

Kerthwap
Member
Free agent
Kerthwap

Old School Hayward, taking charge.

rondo723
Member
Free agent
rondo723

how the f is Hubie Brown trying to argue that it wasn’t a flagrant? does he not know the rules?

Kerthwap
Member
Free agent
Kerthwap

He wants to believe that he can read the heart and intent of the guy who slapped him in the head. Uh huh.

Kerthwap
Member
Free agent
Kerthwap

“He went for the block, unfortunately it catches the arm” No, that was his head, and … yeah, they’re going to tape, good.

rondo723
Member
Free agent
rondo723

I take back what I said before. The Celtics are getting jobbed in a blatant effort to extend this series.

Kerthwap
Member
Free agent
Kerthwap

In fairness, the officiating screwed the Pacers in the first two games. I expected last game to be officiated like this one. Just standard crap NBA stuff.

MrScratch
Member
Free agent
MrScratch

The player even raised his hand immediately after the foul and they still doesn’t call it….

rondo723
Member
Free agent
rondo723

Turner just pulled Baynes to the ground and Baynes got called for a foul

rondo723
Member
Free agent
rondo723

refs in classic horrible mode for a closeout game. for both sides, but it hurts the road team

NewEnglandBlight
Member
Free agent
NewEnglandBlight

Celts up 8-nuthin

Deadsmack #GreenShirtGuy
Member
Free agent
Deadsmack #GreenShirtGuy

2-0 Liverpool

Deadsmack #GreenShirtGuy
Member
Free agent
Deadsmack #GreenShirtGuy

Liverpool scores

dp73
Member
Free agent
dp73

Happy Easter . Enjoy the day.

dp73
Member
Free agent
dp73

Replying to @MarkDanielsPJ i dont get why every pats writer has them taking a tackle in the 1st 2 rounds. can isiah wynn play or not if he cant theres bigger problems, pats should go wr,te,dt and de with those first 6 picks if a o tackle is around in the late 3rd grab him then or in the 4th love a j brown He is my answer. Because starting LT’s don’t usually come in the 3rd or 4th round. It is easier to justify picks at position only when you don’t use any names.If a DT drops to #32… Read more »

MrScratch
Member
Free agent
MrScratch

1) There’s uncertainty on Wynn as they only got to see him a bit in camp and in the preseason.

2) Marcus Cannon is older, oft-injured and fairly expensive.

3) There’s no real depth behind them.

4) Having two LT isn’t the worst place to be in the world.

dp73
Member
Free agent
dp73

http://www.espn.com/blog/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4817397/highly-rated-wrs-have-found-it-tough-to-catch-on-with-patriots

I love this weeks post for Mike Reiss. IMO, it hits the right notes in what the Patriots are looking for in a WR.

cfpats4
Member
Free agent
cfpats4

Who would u pick at wr?

dp73
Member
Free agent
dp73

N’Keal Harry Wr Arizona State.

I also like AJ Brown, Deebo Samuel,Kelvin Harmon, Riey Ridley and Andy Isabella.

cfpats4
Member
Free agent
cfpats4

Ridley or aj for me

cfpats4
Member
Free agent
cfpats4

Reiss:

Deion Branch “I enjoy watching the college games, and with the NFL, I only watch [the Patriots]. I haven’t seen as many guys on the West Coast, but I like the two Ole Miss receivers [D.K. Metcalf and A.J. Brown]. And Calvin Ridley’s brother at Georgia [Riley Ridley]. He reminds me so much of his brother, and I think he has a chance to be special like him.”

cfpats4
Member
Free agent
cfpats4

From weei:

It can be argued players 20-45ish are all relatively the same, which is why we wouldn’t be surprised to see the Patriots trade out of No. 32 and add multiple picks in the second and third rounds. They are all about value and the best value in this draft may be in the second and third rounds, so as of now, it seems it’s more likely the Patriots will trade down instead of up.

oscarthebald
Member
Free agent
oscarthebald

Yes, Nikola Jokic had 29 points tonight. But look at the highlights and you will see that they were 29 of the derpiest points you will ever see…

NewEnglandBlight
Member
Free agent
NewEnglandBlight

Pistons aren’t very good

PatriotPrideBoy
Member
Free agent
PatriotPrideBoy

hello

hugo #FreeBoney
Member
Free agent
hugo #FreeBoney

good evening T

Deadsmack #GreenShirtGuy
Member
Free agent
Deadsmack #GreenShirtGuy

DeRozan ejected for throwing the ball agains the ref

MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats
Member
Free agent
MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats

Technically, it was an impromptu game of dodgeball…and he won!

MrLucky
Member
Free agent
MrLucky

Ben Watson reportedly not going to retire and a lot of speculation he comes back to the Pats. Not exactly the TE I was hoping for coming out of retirement but I’d still take him.

dyims
Member
Free agent
dyims

Wouldn’t the Saints have his rights if he retired before his contract ended????

hugo #FreeBoney
Member
Free agent
hugo #FreeBoney

they would but he wasn’t under contract for 2019 anyway

bring
Member
Free agent
bring

Someone shove-tossed a Nets fan – looked like Simmons

Deadsmack #GreenShirtGuy
Member
Free agent
Deadsmack #GreenShirtGuy

Sixers win, 3-1 on the series

Deadsmack #GreenShirtGuy
Member
Free agent
Deadsmack #GreenShirtGuy

Poor Allen

Kerthwap
Member
Free agent
Kerthwap

I’m not even sure what play they were running for him.

Deadsmack #GreenShirtGuy
Member
Free agent
Deadsmack #GreenShirtGuy

Sixers up by 2, 18 seconds to play

Deadsmack #GreenShirtGuy
Member
Free agent
Deadsmack #GreenShirtGuy

Michael Lombardi @mlombardiNFL
I’m only surprised when Mike Scott makes a shot. Never when he misses

🙂