Addressing the Mock Trend of Trading Up

-by DNOMN8R314

I’ve spotted a trend in mock drafts since Rob Gronkowski’s retirement: experts have started to predict collectively a New England trade up to about the 20th selection to take Iowa tight end Noah Fant. A 12-pick jump seems uncommonly high for Bill Belichick, especially in the first round. Is it? And what might it cost?

(NOTE: I’m using Draftek’s NFL Draft Trade Value Chart to tally the value of draft picks. This chart is not the be-all, end-all of trade decisions, but it’s a good approximation.)

Past Trades Up

  • Belichick’s initial first-round move is the most comparable to this year’s mocks. In the 2002 draft, Belichick sent a package of picks to Washington, moving up from #32 to #21 to select tight end Daniel Graham. In exchange, he gave up #32 (first round), #96 (third round), and #234 (seventh round). Thus, the Patriots received 800 points of draft selection in exchange for 707 points (590 plus 116 plus 1).
  • The next season, holding the 14th overall selection, he sent a sixth-round pick (#193) to move up one slot for defensive lineman Ty Warren. By the chart, that’s an 1150-point slot acquired in exchange for 1113.8 points (1100 plus 13.8).
  • It would be nine drafts until Belichick moved up in the first round again; naturally, he did so twice. Entering the draft with the 27th and 31st selections, Belichick first sent #27 plus a third-rounder (#93) to the Bengals, who had pick number 21, so he could select Chandler Jones. Those moves cost him 808 points (680 plus 128) and got him 800.
  • Four picks later, Belichick sent #31 (600 points) and #126 (fourth round, 46 points) to the Broncos, leaping up to #25 to grab Dont’a Hightower. The slot is worth 720 points, and Belichick gave up 646 points to get it.

Those four trades are the only times Belichick has moved up in the first round as Patriots head coach.

Observations:

  • Belichick’s first-round jumps have been one, six, six, and 11 picks. These low jumps should not be surprising, as first-round picks are worth more draft compensation, which Belichick values. After all, with all the scouting that goes into a draft, it’s still a toss at a dartboard, so having more draft selections (and more chances to select good players) is advantageous.
  • Belichick is good at understanding the value of each pick. The only trade where he lost value, he lost a negligible eight points.
  • Because of their constant success, the Patriots have picked regularly at the bottom of the first round. Since the picks at the top of the first are valued so much higher than the rest of the round (and far more than the rest of the draft), an 11-pick jump from #32 does not cost as much as one might think.

So… will Belichick move up this year?

Maybe.

With the loss of Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots’ tight end depth chart consists of Stephen Anderson, Jacob Hollister, Ryan Izzo, and Matt LaCosse. There is certainly a gap there. And Fant’s combine cemented him as having high-first round value.

But Belichick doesn’t force needs and he won’t draft players above where he’s graded them. Fant is worth the 21st pick, but (and this is just my opinion) I highly doubt he lasts that long. If he trades up, it’ll be for a player he wants but doesn’t think he can get at #32, or a player he thinks he has no chance at but falls down the board against expectations.

Also, even with Gronk’s retirement, one should not write in pen that the Patriots will MUST DEFINITELY take a tight end in the first round. Again, Belichick puts value over needs, whether real or perceived. It’s like my ninth-grade English teacher, who graded papers as “content over mechanics.” You may be the best speller and grammarian in the class, but if you write a poor paper with excellent spelling, you’ll get a worse grade than a great paper with sloppy grammar. With the draft, if you take players who fill the holes on your roster, but they’re bad players, you’ve drafted worse than a GM who takes quality players even if they’re not at positions of immediate need.

Does this prove anything? Heck no. Belichick always chuckles at our expectations.

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rking88
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rking88

do the red sox even have a pitching staff this year? like really what is going on

NewEnglandBlight
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NewEnglandBlight

happy for Virginia, but damn if that wasn’t a garbage foul call.

rking88
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rking88

eh… legit foul… had his legs hit before he released the ball… the double dribble on the other hand? ehhhhhhhh…. I’ll take it

rking88
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rking88

lets go virginia!

NewEnglandBlight
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NewEnglandBlight

you jinxed them!

rking88
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rking88

im so mad right now

MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats
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MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats

Who’s going to win? Having not watched a college B-ball game in years, I’m going with MSU.

MasterAndCommander
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MasterAndCommander

So now we get to see if the Lightning suffer the Curse of the President’s Trophy.

MrScratch
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MrScratch

If the season were to end today, Celtics would be positioned for 9/ 14/ 20/ 22 in the draft.

MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats
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MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats

Trade ’em all for AD?

MrScratch
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MrScratch

You’d have to sign them wait 21 days and then still come up with a $12M salary (Marcus Smart) to match. Or you trade them before they sign and have to match roughly $22M in salary.

I’d have no problem simply nabbing 4 players in this draft.

bring
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bring

I’m worried about the Knicks getting the first pick. The good news is Stern’s no longer around to fix it, so Suns and Cavs should legitimately have the same odds.

If Knicks get #1, they are definitely in play for AD.

Deadsmack #EverythingWeGot
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Deadsmack #EverythingWeGot

Report: DeMarcus Lawrence agrees to five-year, $105 million deal
Todd Archer of ESPN reports it is a five-year, $105 million deal with $65 million guaranteed. He will receive a $25 million signing bonus and is set to make $31.1 million in total money in 2019.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/04/05/demarcus-lawrence-agrees-to-five-year-100-million-deal/

Deadsmack #EverythingWeGot
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Deadsmack #EverythingWeGot

Jets’ Brandon Copeland makes $1.75 million, lives like he’s making $200,000
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/04/06/jets-brandon-copeland-makes-1-75-million-lives-like-hes-making-200000/

Giacomino da Recanati
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Giacomino da Recanati

this is crazy IMO

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/26427917/the-11-nfl-quarterbacks-get-mega-extensions-2019.

I would not give 30 mln to any of this guys right now. Build a team instead.

cfpats4
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cfpats4

U build a team with a qb

Giacomino da Recanati
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Giacomino da Recanati

Most of these organizations will neither have a QB nor a team (and 30 mln dollar a year less in their pockets) …

cfpats4
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cfpats4

So Seattle, philly, and chargers should have rookies come in and play?

MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats
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MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats

BTW, Greg Bedard was on 98.5 yesterday and when talking about how the Pats offense currently looks in trouble with pass catchers, he talked about ways in which they could improve, one of which was drafting Andy Isabella. Can’t wait to be disappointed on draft day. 🙂

MasterAndCommander
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MasterAndCommander

Well the Red Sox suck. Yes, it’s a long season and things could turn around, but the tone has been set. Cora’s approach to spring training and preseason, particualrly the pitching, has backfired big time. Unless they win their final games before the Fenway opener, a defending champ will be hearing the boo-birds right out of the gate. Sad.

MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats
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MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats

Can’t win ’em all.

bring
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bring

Non-football thought of the day:

I have no faith in the C’s getting past the Pacers, but I think everyone is hoping for a Celtics-Bucks & Sixers-Raptors final 4 in the East.

rondo723
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rondo723

Pacers’ offense is too hit-or-miss to get by the Celtics, and if the C’s play like they have been the past few games it’s lights out

bring
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bring

On paper, it’s no contest. Just not liking their mojo.

MasterAndCommander
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MasterAndCommander

Agreed. Could they get by IND? Yes, but this team has had “one and done” written all over it for quite a while.

bring
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bring

I wouldn’t go that far – I think they will get by the Pacers, but I certainly wouldn’t put $ on it.

rondo723
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rondo723

they’ve looked like a team the past few games, at pretty much the right time. horford/baynes pairing is looking great, hayward has been aggressive to the rim (9/9 yesterday wtf!). they claimed they had a switch to flip, and they seem to be flipping it.

dp73
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dp73

Samsonite Make Your Case Poll

Who should be the next person inducted into the Patriots Hall of Fame?
Chuck Fairbanks
Rodney Harrison
Bill Barcells
Richard Seymour
Mike Vrabel

https://www.patriots.com/news/samsonite-make-your-case-ready-for-the-call

Yes , that is a mistake on the site . I think it should be Bill Parcells 🙂

MasterAndCommander
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MasterAndCommander

Bill Barcells is Mike Reese’s cousin. 🙂

MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats
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MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats

Even for those that are not soccer fans, it’s a pretty incredible title race this year in the English Premier League. Liverpool and Man City neck and neck and they both need to keep winning. Liverpool have only lost once all year and yet, they could go on to win the rest of their games and still lose the title. Man City is that good. Exciting race though.

Neil X
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Neil X

No, for non-soccer fans, there is nothing incredible going on here. The race to the most nil-nil ties is beyond boring.

MasterAndCommander
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MasterAndCommander

Boooooooooooooooo

Neil X
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Neil X

I try not to insult the soccer-istas. I see the same insults aimed at hockey fans that soccer fans deservedly endure.

Neil X
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Neil X

But jeez, you were asking for it MAC. Soccer sucks harder than Hoover,

MasterAndCommander
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MasterAndCommander

No it doesn’t. It’s chess on the pitch. Yeah, the flopping is more than annoying, but the game itself is interesting to watch.
As for Hoover’s, never had one that worked well, so to me they suck at sucking. Don’t buy them anymore.

MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats
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MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats

Nah, you’re missing out. I love hockey! I’m only teasing when I say nobody cares. But I do tend to think the regular season is meaningless beyond just qualifying for the playoffs.

Mattsky
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Mattsky

How can you say that Neil? Some of the flopping is so incredible.The top players after their done with soccer could go on to Hollywood or Broadway.

MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats
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MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats

I LOVE SALAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!

MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats
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MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats

He is pure magic.

Neil X
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Neil X

At $56 million, Trey Flowers has more guaranteed money in his contract than any free agent signed this year.

dp73
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jdlboot14
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jdlboot14

I think trading Rosen to pick Murray is a dumb plan for the Cards. Rosen already went through his tough 1st year, he’s miles ahead of where Murray will be as a rookie with 1 year of college play (albeit an amazing year)

Neil X
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Neil X

Well, sometimes rookies come in and play great. Wentz. Mayfield. But I do agree with you that it would be really stupid to give up on the #10 pick in last year’s draft just because you saw a prettier girl in a tighter skirt.

PanicTime
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PanicTime

How much money would the NFLPA get If the AAF had been successful from the start? Obviously $0.
To turn back and start a PR campaign to bring them in when the league is clearly doomed is really bold.
“it’s my neighbor’s fault if I filed for bankrupcy. He didn’t get involved when I told him that I had thousands of dollars of gambling debt.”

cfpats4
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cfpats4

XFL starts in Feb, that should be another failure as well

MrLucky
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MrLucky

The XFL isnt going to try to be the Triple A version of the NFL. McMahon will pull out all the stops to make it more entertaining. It will almost certainly fail again but it will last longer than the AAF which was run horribly.

MrScratch
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MrScratch

The symbiotic nature would have been the ability for marginal players to demonstrate their talent in a competitive environment.

It’s very difficult for players who have little/ no game experience to make rosters. This potentially could have helped cheap, young players to get noticed and become more viable in camp.

Just looking at the Patriots, i think it’s something like 4-5 years sice a player on the PS has made the opening 53 roster the following year.

Neil X
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Neil X

Yes, it was an opportunity for the NFLPA to help their players, but they took a pass on it.

PanicTime
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PanicTime

The NFLPA wouldn’t have been helping anybody by jumping into the volcano crater. The opportunity was there before the league started and they were not invited to be involved.

cfpats4
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cfpats4

Mike McCarthy likes massages as well…Release the Videos!!

PanicTime
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PanicTime

It just takes longer to be handkrafted in Florida.

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

“handkrafted” lol

cfpats4
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cfpats4
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cfpats4

Brady:
Three years, $54 million, $25 million guaranteed at signing

Wilson:Four years, $140 million with $55 million guaranteed

Goff: Five years, $155 million with $54 million guaranteed at signing

Neil X
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Neil X

This is basically the same Red Sox team that won 118 games last year. Hard to watch them so far this year 2-6, ugh.

dp73
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dp73
MasterAndCommander
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MasterAndCommander

WAKE UP!!!!

Neil X
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Neil X

Wow, many AAF players are apparently suddenly personally responsible for their hotel bills of $2500+ after the league shut down. There is one injured player with a broken leg who is still hospitalized but now suddenly doesn’t have insurance for his health care.

Thank you Bill Polian.

JLStokes
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JLStokes

I don’t know how you start a football league and not budget to AT LEAST make it through the first full season.

Baffling .

PanicTime
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PanicTime

Two words : Bill Polian.

The conspiracy theorist (if such a thing exists) in me wouldn’t dismiss that the NFL (through T. Dundon) did whatever they could to torpedo the league.

Neil X
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Neil X

It really was the NFLPA that torpedoed it, by not permitting practice squad players to play in the AAF.

PanicTime
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PanicTime

Sorry but that’s revisionist history. The NFLPA was never involved at any point in the league, they never had a stake in the league but when the league failed, everybody points finger at them. They’re not some Superman that is supposed to fly to the rescue of whoever is drowning.

Neil X
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Neil X

Well it’s not revisionist, in that folks were talking about the negotiations between the NFLPA and AAF for weeks before the league closed.

Neil X
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Neil X

At any rate, it’s certain that the NFL didn’t want the league to fold, they hyped the hell out of it on nfl.com and had multiple AAF games on NFL Network every week.

PanicTime
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PanicTime

I respect that opinion but trying to put the failure of the AAF on the NFLPA is bold. Dundon promised fund, then pull the plug and pointed fingers at the NFLPA which had no stakes on that league.

Neil X
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Neil X

I wouldn’t phrase it that the NFLPA is responsible for the failure, clearly there was insufficient funding for the league, and that Hurricanes owner dude backed out of his $250 million commitment. But use of Practice Squad players could have saved the league, and been a good thing for PS players–more game experience, more exposure. The NFLPA didn’t let it happen, for whatever reason. They were under no obligation to do so, but it seems that it would have been a good thing for their union members.

PanicTime
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PanicTime

Dundon tried to get the NFLPAinvolved and they were very clear from the start (they even had a press release) saying we have nothing to do with that league.

PanicTime
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PanicTime

The hotel bill thing is really puzzling. I assume the teams booked the hotel (the players might have provided their credit card info for incidental expenses like food or drinks). The hotels, learning that the league is folding are trying to pull a fast one and slam the players with the bills. That shouldn’t stand in court.

MrLucky
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MrLucky

These first 2 series have been more frustrating than all of last season for the Sox.

Neil X
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Neil X

Bad,bad start to the season. Stunningly bad.

Patience,it will change.

MasterAndCommander
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MasterAndCommander

2-160

Deadsmack #EverythingWeGot
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Deadsmack #EverythingWeGot

Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter
Another jump from the AAF to the NFL: WR Rashad Ross from the Arizona Hotshots to the Carolina Panthers, per source.

Deadsmack #EverythingWeGot
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Deadsmack #EverythingWeGot

Hugo, do you like this?

GOJIRA – Silvera (Pol’And’Rock Festival 2018)
https://youtu.be/ISJtvWhkMFQ?t=2744

hugo #FreeBoney
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hugo #FreeBoney

Nice! My friend in the UK is seeing them soon

Zoocore #WeMissYouBoney
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Zoocore #WeMissYouBoney

Love Gojira!

hugo #FreeBoney
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hugo #FreeBoney

@MikeReiss The late Leon Gray, an offensive tackle for the Patriots from 1973-78, was voted into the team’s Hall of Fame on Tuesday by the seniors committee. Gray teamed with Hall of Famer John Hannah to form one of the greatest 1-2 combinations in franchise history.
Awesome. Good to see a player who wasn’t part of a SB-winning team get some love from the Pats HOF

dp73
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dp73

I was at an event that John Hannah was speaking at and he said Leon Gray was the best tackle he ever play next to.

hugo #FreeBoney
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hugo #FreeBoney

Not to take anything away from guys like Kevin Faulk or Mike Vrabel, but were they at any point even top 10 players in the league at their position? The Pats HOF is too harsh on the old timers imo.

dp73
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dp73

I agree. I think they need to decrease the time seniors can be voted in to 3 years.

Julius Adams should be in. He was a great Patriots player on mostly bad teams.

dp73
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dp73

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AdamJu00.htm

“The NFL only began to keep track of times passers lost yardage in 1961 and no credit was given to the defensive player responsible until 1982.”-Wikipedia

Neil X
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Neil X

Since when did being in the top 10 players in the league become the criteria for being in the Patriots HOF? Not sure where that came from.

There is a handful more of older player who should be in, but let’s be real, they were not exactly loaded with stars in elder eras. Let’s not overrate a mediocre past.

Deadsmack #EverythingWeGot
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Deadsmack #EverythingWeGot

Oliver Thomas @OliverBThomas
UDFA-turned-captain David Andrews will announce a third-round draft selection for the Patriots later this month, per NFL release.

Unless Pats trade that pick 🙂

Jdog Lemon Head
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Jdog Lemon Head

Matt Light material, but I saw earlier this morning that NFL banned AAF players from signing with NFL teams. I thought that was terrible for those players who are trying to get better and pursue their NFL career, but I just saw the NFL authorized it now. The NFL did something right.

M.Fan
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M.Fan

agree that (re-)authorizing it was the right move – just curious why they had banned this logical transaction in the first place?

Jdog Lemon Head
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Jdog Lemon Head

I read they wanted to make sure they were protected because of legalities. They must have reviewed and made sure there were no legal issues by allowing it.

Deadsmack #EverythingWeGot
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Deadsmack #EverythingWeGot

Alice In Chains – Black Antenna: Episode 04 (Fly)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DEbzIXjIH5w

Deadsmack #EverythingWeGot
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Deadsmack #EverythingWeGot

This is nice idea. All their songs of the last album are a part of a musical movie. You have to listen the whole album and watch the videos to follow the story.

Deadsmack #EverythingWeGot
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Deadsmack #EverythingWeGot

“Black Antenna” is a dark sci-fi thriller set against the backdrop of the band’s Grammy-nominated album, Rainier Fog (BMG). “Black Antenna” was directed by Adam Mason, written by Paul Sloan and Adam Mason, and produced by Elizabeth Mason and Nick Vallelonga, who recently won two Oscars (“Best Original Screenplay”) and (“Best Picture”) for “Green Book” (Vallelonga also has a cameo in episode one of “Black Antenna,” “The One You Know.”)

cfpats4
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cfpats4

wr’s that have visited or will be visiting the pats so far:
Miles Boykin, Notre Dame
A.J. Brown, Ole Miss
N’Keal Harry, Arizona State

and 1 TE
Jace Sternberger, Texas A&M

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

ok, so scratch them off the draft board, then

Jdog Lemon Head
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Jdog Lemon Head

Why, did Jim like them?

JLStokes
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JLStokes

@DanGrazianoESPN
The NFL salary cap is not an outside imposition on teams. It’s a voluntary construct imposed by the league on itself for the purpose of controlling and limiting players’ earnings. The NFL could abolish it at any time. So why, again, should players care about teams’ cap woes?

I agree. Get rid of the Salary Cap.

MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats
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MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats

Seriously? That would destroy one of the pillars that maintains competitive balance.

JLStokes
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JLStokes

I disagree. We’ve seen team after team fork over tons of money and NOT win a Super Bowl (or sometimes even be competitive).

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

that is not a reason to throw away the cap. it is a reason for those teams to find new GMs.

Jdog Lemon Head
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Jdog Lemon Head

They fork over tons of money, but it makes the team top heavy with no depth. Image a team with no cap. They could theoretically have all-pros at every single position.

MrScratch
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MrScratch

Well, it’s an agreement as to the division of revenue. And i don’t know that the players care or are asked to care about salary cap woes, it just exists for some teams.

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

the salary cap is one of the exact things that makes the NFL great.

hugo #FreeBoney
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hugo #FreeBoney

Totally agreed. The cap creates the environment where 32 teams have a chance. If you think the players deserve a higher share of the revenue you raise the cap.

JLStokes
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JLStokes

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2828649-what-happened-in-green-bay

This seems like a silly report similar to the Seth Wickersham article.

cfpats4
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cfpats4

Seth Roberts released from Raiders, wr, pats should swoop in

cfpats4
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HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

would be a good fit. He can KR/PR too, right?

Deadsmack #EverythingWeGot
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Deadsmack #EverythingWeGot

meh

dp73
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dp73

Happy birthday John Hannah !!!!

JLStokes
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JLStokes

When the Pats draft 2 WRs and 2 TEs with their 1st 4 picks I’ll try and listen for Pats nation’s heads to explode. 🙂

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

that will be a much quieter explosion than what happens when Bill trades down, out, and picks a Guard and a Safety.

M.Fan
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M.Fan

there will be for sure a safety selected in the second round who will be considered a reach and who will be released after four years spent as a healthy scratch.
Or the replacement of Gronk, who knows. BB is slightly better at drafting than me.

jdlboot14
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jdlboot14

Pats have 12 picks. But we’ll only have room to keep ~5 on the roster with some returning IR competitors. There’s no need to use all these picks. If ever there was a time to trade up, and get a couple legit contributors, it’s now. Pats always find great UDFA’s to round out depth, but we need a few difference makers to fill in the losses. TE, WR, DL. Don’t screw around, trade away Bill!

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

or trade out into the 2020 draft for higher picks then

dp73
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dp73

I think it makes a difference who the players are. He could trade up or down due what the position of the players left on the board is.

dp73
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dp73

Which players do you like?

rondo723
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rondo723

Hayward unleashed! Marcus Morris sits and all of a sudden the ball is flying around the perimeter and cutting through Miami’s zone defense. Hayward and Horford’s chemistry is coming along great. The twin towers starting line up is working. Turn Morris into a bench microwave scorer and gear up for the postseason.

JLStokes
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JLStokes

We all agree with you. The ball stops with Morris too much. Having him in the starting line up was a nice change up mid-season, but having him, Irving and Tatum all on the floor playing ISO is a recipe for a loss. I think he’d be better coming off the bench with Hayward and Brown. It’ll help the 2nd unit with their scoring.

Pauly
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Pauly

The video of Pop crashing Malone’s press scrum is absolutely hilarious.

NewEnglandBlight
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NewEnglandBlight

I’m gonna take a wild gamble and say the Pats draft Sterling Sheffield from UMaine.. he’s a big reason UMaine made it to the semi-finals in the FCS this past season.

NewEnglandBlight
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MasterAndCommander
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MasterAndCommander

Bold

NewEnglandBlight
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NewEnglandBlight

homertastic

JLStokes
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JLStokes

That might not fly. They already have Hightower, Van Noy, Roberts, Bentley & Sam. That’s a tough group to break into without someone getting a major injury.

HunterCenter
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HunterCenter

Hightower is old, and Roberts/Bentley/Sam could all easily face competition if some LB talent is drafted in any round. I don’t see that as a difficult group to break into at all.

itsBradyBaby
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itsBradyBaby

Lmao, wont be shocked if Hightower was traded before the season starts depending on how they view the development of the younger guys.

dp73
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dp73

Hightower is 29.

itsBradyBaby
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itsBradyBaby

And slow

MasterAndCommander
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MasterAndCommander

Here’s a trivia question to keep dyims busy during the lulls: 🙂

Who was on the first radio team who served as the Voice of the Patrots?

dyims
Member
Free agent
dyims

I believe it was a man named Star(sp)

PatriotPrideBoy
Member
Free agent
PatriotPrideBoy

the raptors will be a very tough out in the east

MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats
Member
Free agent
MattDog #N'KealHarryToThePats

Nah, they will be swept by the Seattle Super Sonics!

hugo #FreeBoney
Member
Free agent
hugo #FreeBoney

Definitely. They’ve had a very deep and complete team for years, but relying on DeRozan as their go-to always caught up to them in the playoffs. Now they’ve got a bona-fide #1 in Kawhi

itsBradyBaby
Member
Free agent
itsBradyBaby

Damn didn’t know Ryan Grant was a free agent could had been a decent pick up